AGP Executive Report

Kosovo & EU Path: Greece’s FM Giorgos Gerapetritis told Belgrade Athens’ stance on Kosovo hasn’t changed, while backing EU-facilitated Serbia–Kosovo dialogue and Serbia’s EU membership; the talks also covered energy, trade and transport links. Energy Security: Serbia’s energy minister said Gazprom agreed to extend gas supplies for three more months beyond the June 30 deadline, securing stability for citizens and the economy. Real Estate & Construction: eKapija launched a special edition newsletter on how Serbia’s property market is shifting toward trust, premium/mixed-use projects, and sustainability-driven long-term value. Commercial Property Outlook: A separate analysis argues the real estate market is entering a new phase with sharper rent differences between central and peripheral areas, while housing demand keeps expanding. EU Enlargement Watch: EU member states agreed to open accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova, moving the enlargement agenda forward. Regional Transport Funding: The EU Court of Auditors warns Western Balkans countries may miss the 2030 core transport network deadline due to project delays and weak supervision. UNIFIL Incident: The UN Security Council condemned the killing of a Serbian UNIFIL peacekeeper in Lebanon and called for accountability and protection of peacekeepers.

MOL-NIS Deal: Hungary’s MOL says it has successfully concluded talks with Serbia on a shareholders’ agreement for acquiring a majority stake in NIS, with OFAC extending the June 16 deadline for winding up talks and Serbia’s energy minister saying a compromise was reached. Public Finance: Serbia’s public debt stood at 39.214 bln euros at end-April, down slightly from December and equal to 41.5% of GDP. Energy Storage Push: Serbia is treating electricity storage as a core part of modern power projects, citing the 2024 Energy Law change that formally defines storage as a separate energy activity. Legal-Trade Tangle: Srbijagas has launched international arbitration against Lithuania over alleged devaluation of arbitration awards tied to Azotara Pancevo, seeking compensation that could reach up to EUR 20 mln. EU Transport Funding Risk: The European Court of Auditors warns Western Balkans countries may miss the 2030 deadline for the core trans-European transport network due to project delays and weak monitoring. Tourism Investment: Holiday Inn is set to open in Novi Pazar in 2029 with an investment worth over EUR 24 mln and 120 jobs, including spa, pool and conference facilities. Regional Diplomacy: Serbian PM Djuro Macut met Greece’s FM Giorgos Gerapetritis to deepen cooperation and back Serbia’s EU path, with bilateral trade cited at 2.2 bln euros.

Serbia-Greece EU push: Serbian PM Djuro Macut met Greek FM Giorgos Gerapetritis in Belgrade, with both sides stressing stronger bilateral ties and Greece’s backing of Serbia’s EU path; officials also cited record trade of about €2.2bn and plans to deepen cooperation in energy, transport and investment. NIS deal momentum: MOL says it has successfully concluded talks with Serbia on the shareholders’ agreement for acquiring a majority stake in NIS, while negotiations with authorities continue to finalize the transaction after an OFAC deadline extension to June 16. Public finances: Serbia’s public debt stood at €39.214bn at end-April, about 41.5% of GDP, slightly down versus end-2025. Energy investment focus: Serbia is moving to treat electricity storage as a core energy activity, with the 2024 Energy Law defining it and aiming for a clearer licensing framework. Regional business integration: Serbia’s Chamber of Commerce warns that CEFTA delivered more visible results than the Open Balkans and Berlin Process, with companies still calling for deeper, consistently implemented regional integration. Tourism boost: Holiday Inn is set to open in Novi Pazar in 2029, a project worth over €24m and expected to create 120 jobs. Dinar steady: The dinar’s official median rate is 117.3798 RSD per euro.

NIS Deal Update: MOL says it has wrapped up negotiations with Serbia on a shareholders’ agreement for acquiring a majority stake in NIS, with remaining steps tied to seller/institution talks and U.S. OFAC approval; Serbia’s energy ministry says a compromise was reached, including a plan for Serbia to buy an extra 5% if Gazprom Neft and OFAC clear the transaction, while NIS’s Pančevo refinery must keep operating at least at recent sanctioned levels. Telecom Policy: Telekom Srbija CEO Vladimir Lučić says roaming charges between Serbia and the EU should be abolished by end-2026 or Q1 2027 as Serbia completes required legislation by September under the EU “Roam Like at Home” push. Corporate Expansion: Vipul Organics and Omya sign an exclusive European distribution partnership for pigment dispersions/powders, covering markets including Serbia and the wider Balkans (excluding Switzerland and Poland). Tech & Business: Solflare launches “Solflare Packs” with Collector Crypt, letting users buy and trade tokenized physical trading cards via a Solana wallet. Jobs Watch: Ubisoft reportedly plans further cuts—up to 380 roles—shutting studios in Canada and Serbia and restructuring other teams. Security/UN: UN Security Council demands accountability after the death of a Serbian UNIFIL peacekeeper in Lebanon, calling for a swift investigation.

NIS Deal Update: Serbia says it has closed open issues with Hungary’s MOL over the acquisition of a majority stake in NIS, with a compromise on the shareholders’ agreement. If Gazprom Neft sells 56.15% to MOL and the US OFAC approves, Serbia will buy an extra 5% to gain stronger rights on key decisions, while MOL commits to keep the Pančevo refinery running at least at pre-sanctions average capacity. Telecom & EU Rules: Telekom Srbija CEO Vladimir Lučić says roaming charges between Serbia and the EU should be abolished by end-2026 or in Q1 2027, after Serbia passes required legislation by September. Public Finance: Serbia sold five-year government bonds worth RSD 27.6bn at a 5% yield, with demand topping RSD 31bn. FX Watch: The dinar’s official median rate is RSD 117.3730 per euro. Energy Infrastructure: Serbia is preparing a draft law for alternative-fuels infrastructure, with public debate until June 25, targeting more charging points for EVs, hydrogen and gas. Regional Diplomacy: Serbia’s SEECP ministerial meeting in Sofia focused on transport, energy and digital connectivity. EU Enlargement Safeguards: EU heavyweights propose faster enforcement tools against future member states’ democratic and legal breaches to avoid an “Orbán repeat.” Sanctions & Risk: RFE/RL reports Serbia fast-tracked citizenship for many sanctioned Russians, raising Schengen and EU-accession concerns.

NIS & MOL Deal: Serbia has wrapped up talks with Hungary’s MOL on the shareholder agreement for NIS, with Energy Minister Dubravka Đedović Handanović saying all issues were closed and a compromise reached—while MOL’s separate bid to buy Gazprom Neft’s stake is still tied to U.S. OFAC timing (deadline June 16). Energy Diplomacy: Đedović Handanović also met the UK ambassador in Belgrade to discuss energy cooperation and bringing UK finance into Serbia’s 2035 energy investment cycle. Regional Cooperation: At the SEECP summit in Sofia, Serbian PM Đuro Macut stressed regional unity and stronger economic ties to tackle crime, migration, cyber and disaster risks. EU Scrutiny of Media Deal: The European Commission opened probes into the Paramount–Warner Bros Discovery merger, including concerns over Middle Eastern sovereign funding. Ubisoft Restructuring Hits Serbia: Ubisoft is shutting its Belgrade studio and cutting up to 380 jobs across Winnipeg, Belgrade and Barcelona, with Barcelona shifting focus to Rainbow Six. State Subsidies: Serbia’s fiscal strategy shows RSD63.6bn in 2025 subsidies to 27 state-owned firms, led by Infrastruktura železnice Srbije (RSD17.9bn) and Putevi Srbije (RSD17.3bn).

NIS & OFAC Deadline: Serbia’s NIS has applied for a new US special licence to keep operating after June 16, citing the need for uninterrupted fuel supply while ownership talks with Gazprom and Hungary’s MOL enter a final stretch. Energy Deal Watch: Serbia says it won’t block the NIS sale process and that key issues are mostly resolved, but the transaction still needs US approval. State Subsidies: Serbia’s 2025 fiscal strategy shows RSD63.6bn in subsidies to 27 state-owned firms, led by Infrastruktura železnice Srbije (RSD17.9bn) and Putevi Srbije (RSD17.3bn). EU Accession Push: Serbia’s EU team says a Franco-German “non-paper” could speed accession via simplified steps for opening clusters and gradual inclusion in EU policies. Belgrade Business & Media Ownership: “Naš Portal” publisher Naš Portal’s owner changed—construction businessman Branko Miljković is now registered as 100% owner. Tech & Health Expansion: Genesis Pharma and Alnylam expand their RNAi therapeutics partnership to cover the Nordic region, adding Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. Regional Diplomacy: Serbia’s PM Djuro Macut will attend the SEECP summit in Sofia, focused on regional connectivity, security and economic cooperation.

NIS & Energy Deal: Serbia’s Mining and Energy Minister Dubravka Djedović Handanović says talks on the sale of Gazprom’s majority stake in NIS are progressing, with MOL and the Russian side given a tight June 16 deadline under US OFAC rules—while Serbia insists it won’t block the transaction and wants stable refinery operations in Pančevo. FX Watch: The National Bank of Serbia sets the dinar’s official median at 117.3910 per euro, slightly different from Monday. Serbia–Angola Business Push: Serbian FM Marko Đurić and Angola’s leadership are using high-level meetings in Belgrade to turn long-standing ties into concrete economic cooperation, with 10 signed agreements including double-taxation and investment protection deals. Regional Diplomacy: Turkey’s foreign minister will represent Erdoğan at the SEECP summit in Sofia, focusing on connectivity and regional integration—an angle that matters for Serbia’s wider trade and energy links. Tech & Localization: Microshare expands its EverSmart™ pest and clean AI platform with 31 new languages, including Serbian, signaling broader regional adoption for multilingual operations. Human Trafficking Crackdown: Serbia-linked migration routes are in the spotlight after Bangladesh’s RAB arrests three over a scheme allegedly routing victims via Serbia toward Europe.

NIS Deal Clock: Serbia’s Mining and Energy Minister Dubravka Djedović Handanović says talks on MOL’s acquisition of Gazprom’s majority stake in NIS are progressing, but the June 16 US OFAC deadlines for approval and NIS operating licences make the window tight. Energy Market Impact: A separate broker warns Serbia should avoid “red line” conditions tied to MOL’s plans for the Pancevo refinery, arguing investors won’t accept terms that could trigger future losses. FX Watch: The dinar’s official median rate is 117.3910 RSD per euro, slightly firmer vs Monday. Digital Services: Post of Serbia launched eMailCarrier, a 24/7 e-delivery service for invoices and official documents via a single eMailbox, with delivery tracking and confirmations. Infrastructure & Cities: Belgrade’s Staklenac shopping center and Bajloni Market are set to be removed by year-end for subway works, with wastewater-plant contract activity also tied to the summer schedule. EU Pressure on Tourism: Albania’s “Flamingo Revolution” over a Kushner-linked luxury resort is escalating, with EU officials warning the project could clash with environmental rules—an issue that could affect EU accession momentum. Serbia-Angola Business Push: President Vučić expects Angolan investors to come to Serbia as leaders sign agreements, with cooperation priorities including agriculture, ICT, and investment. EXPO 2027 Procurement: EXPO 2027 Belgrade opened a tender for design, construction and management of collective pavilions, with bids due July 3.

Digital Postal Upgrade: Post of Serbia has started rolling out eMailCarrier, letting citizens and businesses receive and send invoices and official documents via a single eMailbox on the eGovernment portal, with delivery tracking and confirmations. Belgrade Infrastructure: The Republic Square shopping center “Staklenac” and Bajloni Market are set to be removed by year-end to clear the way for subway works. Energy Security: Serbia and Ukraine have met 2026 gas storage targets under the Energy Community rules, with Serbia’s Banatski Dvor reported at 44% full on May 1, while certification of the storage operator is still pending. Renewables Incentives Wind-Down: Over 60 Serbian power plants have lost privileged producer status after RES feed-in tariffs expired, reshaping their future on the electricity market. Economic Momentum: PM Djuro Macut’s GDP-growth council cites Q1 growth of 3.2%, with tourism, construction and foreign trade leading, and inflation at 3.5%. EXPO 2027 Procurement: EXPO 2027 d.o.o. opened a tender for design, construction, operations management and maintenance of collective pavilions, with bids due July 3. Business & Trade Links: Serbia and Angola are set to sign 10 economic cooperation agreements during President João Lourenço’s visit to Belgrade. Labor Market Pressure: Infostud survey finds around 60% of employees in Serbia plan to change jobs within a year, pointing to low loyalty and weak engagement. Global Recognition for Serbian Coffee: Belgrade’s Kafeterija Magazin 1907 made Monocle’s world top 25 influential coffee businesses list.

EU Accession Momentum: Serbia’s EU accession team says it could be “technically ready” to open Cluster 2 by end-June, with work focused on internal market rules and state aid/free zones. EU-Western Balkans Politics: Serbian PM Ana Brnabić told an EPP panel in Sarajevo that enlargement matters for both the region and the EU, pointing to rule-of-law and electoral reforms. Energy & Sanctions Watch: MOL received another OFAC license extension to keep negotiating its acquisition of Gazprom Neft’s stake in NIS until 16 June, aiming to finalize transaction paperwork. Labor Market Pressure: Infostud survey finds about 60% of employees in Serbia plan to change jobs within a year, with low engagement and trust toward employers. Foreign Investment/Industry: CINS reports court cleared PowerChina’s Serbian branch in a case tied to workers without permits, arguing the branch lacked legal liability. FX Update: The dinar’s official median rate is 117.3823 RSD per euro. Regional Business Links: Etihad and Romania’s TAROM sign a codeshare connecting Belgrade and other Eastern European capitals to Abu Dhabi.

Serbia–South Korea Trade: Serbia and South Korea have wrapped up talks on a free trade agreement, setting up a new framework for business and investment; the signing is expected after both sides complete procedures. Energy Security: Serbia agreed another three-month extension of its Gazprom gas supply deal, with the energy minister citing stable, affordable deliveries and talks on expanding the Banatski Dvor storage facility. Digital & IT Cooperation: Serbia plans to work with Rosatom to bring more digital and IT companies into the market, aiming at wider cooperation in digitalization and advanced tech solutions. Regional Politics & Business Risk (Kosovo): Kosovo’s snap parliamentary election delivered Kurti’s Vetevendosje as the top vote-getter (~43%), but without the majority needed to end the political deadlock—another uncertainty for EU/NATO progress and the economy. Foreign Investment Backlash (Albania): Protests in Albania continue over a €1.4bn Kushner-linked luxury resort near protected wetlands, raising environmental and governance concerns. Aviation Costs Watch: Data highlights that several long-haul routes into New York-JFK are running far below load targets, with one corridor dropping under 51%.

Serbia-China Industrial Upgrade: Serbia’s push to modernize manufacturing is getting a boost from Chinese tech transfer, with companies adopting “Chinese brain” digital systems to monitor production in real time and improve efficiency, following the China-Serbia Free Trade Agreement. EU Enlargement & Security: At the EU-Western Balkans summit in Montenegro, EU leaders renewed efforts to speed up accession, framing enlargement as increasingly tied to Europe’s security needs amid geopolitical uncertainty. Kosovo Snap Election Watch: Kosovo held another early parliamentary vote aimed at breaking a year-long political deadlock; turnout hit 15.10% by 1 p.m., with higher participation in Serb-majority municipalities, while analysts warn repeated elections may not fix institutional instability. MOL-NIS Deal Timeline: The US granted MOL more time to negotiate its purchase of Gazprom’s 56.16% stake in Serbia’s NIS, extending OFAC approval to June 16. Albania Resort Protests Spill Over Region: Thousands protested in Albania against a €1.4bn Kushner-linked luxury resort near protected wetlands, raising environmental and transparency concerns—an issue that also touches regional investment sentiment.

MOL–NIS Deal: The US has granted Hungary’s MOL more time to negotiate the purchase of a 56.16% stake in Serbia’s NIS from Gazprom Neft, extending OFAC approval to June 16 as talks near “finalization” of transaction documents. EU Enlargement Push: At the EU–Western Balkans summit in Montenegro, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron backed faster accession via “gradual” market access and simplified steps, while EU Council President Antonio Costa called enlargement the bloc’s key geopolitical investment. Kosovo Election Watch: Kosovo is set for a third parliamentary election in 18 months amid a political impasse, with voters frustrated and the country still struggling to form stable majorities. Serbia–China Industrial Upgrade: A Serbia–China cooperation wave is reshaping manufacturing, with Chinese tech transfer and digital systems boosting industrial efficiency, highlighted by the “Chinese brain” production monitoring platform at an auto-parts plant. Albania Resort Protests: Thousands in Albania protested a €1.4bn Kushner-linked luxury resort near protected wetlands, raising fresh questions for environmental governance and high-end tourism investment.

EU Enlargement Push: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron urged faster EU enlargement at the EU–Western Balkans summit in Montenegro, proposing incentives like gradual single-market access and simplified accession steps. Western Balkans Summit Finance: The EU also unveiled a 6bn-euro facility to speed reforms and bring candidates closer economically, with Montenegro’s EU path said to be “within reach” for a 2028 target. Serbia–China Industry Upgrade: A new wave of Serbian manufacturing modernization is being powered by Chinese tech transfer, with firms adopting “Chinese brain” digital systems on production lines after the China–Serbia Free Trade Agreement. UAE–Serbia Ties: Serbia’s PM Đuro Macut met UAE FNC Speaker Saqr Ghobash, highlighting CEPA’s role in boosting non-oil trade and investment and expanding cooperation across sectors. Kosovo Political Instability: Kosovo is set for a third parliamentary election in 18 months on June 7, as voters and parties remain stuck in an institutional deadlock that keeps blocking stable majorities. Albania Resort Backlash: In Albania, protests are growing against a Kushner-linked luxury resort near protected wetlands, with environmental concerns and an anti-corruption probe adding pressure.

EU-Western Balkans Summit: EU leaders and Balkan officials met in Tivat, Montenegro, to push faster enlargement and deeper economic inclusion, backed by a €6bn facility aimed at accelerating reforms and integration. Serbia’s EU Path: Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić said Serbia supports Macron-Merz’s non-paper on gradual EU integration, with expectations to open new accession clusters soon. Trade & Investment: Serbia and South Korea moved closer to a comprehensive economic partnership/free-trade deal after talks in Belgrade, with cooperation flagged in trade, investment protection and business frameworks. Aviation Business Risk: Wizz Air warned Serbia’s new aviation rules could force it to close its Belgrade base from November 2026, threatening about 150 jobs and routes. Energy & Industry Links: Serbia and Uzbekistan discussed expanding trade and projects across textiles, pharma, agriculture, transport/logistics and energy, while Serbia also continued energy cooperation talks with partners. Albania Resort Protests (Regional Watch): Thousands protested a Kushner-backed €1.6bn luxury resort near protected wetlands, with SPAK launching a probe over environmental and legal issues—an example of how investment plans can collide with governance and sustainability.