AGP Executive Report

EU Accession Watch: EU enlargement commissioner Marta Kos says Serbia’s path depends on “facing the past” and the rule of law, warning she can’t “look into the eyes” of Srebrenica victims after state honors for convicted war criminal Ratko Mladić. Election & Media Climate: RTS says it will monitor the campaign with “independence” and “fairness,” but critics cite heavy Vučić airtime and imbalance; student groups and new coalitions are already mobilising ahead of October 25 polls. Energy & Household Pressure: A new Ipsos/Secours populaire survey finds 29% of Europeans live in precarious conditions, with 73% fearing they can’t afford fuel bills—Serbia is included among surveyed countries. Business & Investment: At BELTALKS in Belgrade, officials and business leaders argue the Western Balkans should be treated as part of Europe’s solution, not a problem—pushing investment, integration and energy security. FDI & Growth: Vučić touts Serbia’s 3.5% GDP growth in H1 2026 as Europe-leading and says attracting investors is harder as Europe sees fewer deals amid geopolitics. Agriculture Costs: Farmers warn the government offered no real help before autumn sowing, citing fertilizer and milk price pressure and low purchase prices. Serbia–China Trade Link: Serbian firms use CIFIT in Xiamen to connect with Chinese partners; deals discussed include aviation, agriculture and tourism cooperation. Sports Tech/Jobs: Saber Interactive says it has “no real development in North America any more,” with game work spread across global studios including Serbia. Aviation Safety Dispute: Ryanair says it will dispute claims that a Serbian passenger was “sucked out” after a window broke mid-flight, as US investigators continue the probe. Real Estate Deal: Miroslav Mišković’s purchase of state-owned land and unfinished structures in Novi Beograd’s Block 20 highlights how pricing and timing can reshape major local assets.

Snap Elections & EU Pressure: Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić dissolved parliament and called snap parliamentary elections for Oct. 25, after EU officials criticised Serbia over its state-honours funeral for convicted war criminal Ratko Mladić—raising fresh questions about Serbia’s EU path. Belgrade Growth Pitch: At BELTALKS, Vučić said Serbia’s H1 2026 GDP growth of 3.5% was the highest in Europe and argued foreign investors will return as growth and stability improve. EXPO 2027 Push: Finance Minister Sinisa Mali said EXPO 2027 in Belgrade could “completely transform” Serbia’s outlook, positioning the country as a European hub. EU Accession Talks: Caretaker FM Marko Đurić urged a “win-win” EU relationship and argued Serbia should help shape accession pace rather than wait. Ryanair Dispute: Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary said the airline will dispute a Serbian passenger’s claim that he was partially “sucked out” after a window broke mid-flight; US investigators are examining the case. Climate & Costs: Copernicus reported August as the world’s joint hottest month on record, with drought hitting parts of Europe including Serbia.

Snap Elections in Serbia: President Aleksandar Vučić dissolved parliament and called snap parliamentary elections for 25 October, framing it as a response to rising political tensions and promising stability while voters choose among “numerous options.” Belgrade Business & Policy: The 2nd BELTALKS economic conference continues in Belgrade, bringing together business leaders and EU-linked institutions to discuss competitiveness and sustainable transformation, with a push for clearer EU signals for candidate countries. Telecom & Media Industry: Telekom Srbija says it wants to turn Serbia’s production boom into a regional and global content powerhouse, scaling international partnerships and exporting local creative output. Energy & Infrastructure: Romanian JT Grup Oil completed a new private petroleum products terminal at Constanta, adding up to 1 million tonnes of annual handling capacity—relevant for regional supply chains. Climate & Costs: Copernicus data confirm August 2026 as the world’s joint hottest month on record (+1.65°C vs pre-industrial), with drought impacts explicitly including Serbia and low flows on major rivers. Security Allegations: Leaked Five Eyes-linked reporting claims Western special forces veterans may have trained Russian troops in Bulgaria and Serbia, while the named training company denies involvement. Foreign Policy: Serbia’s FM Marko Đurić met U.S. lawmakers and also Uzbekistan’s delegation, stressing EU membership goals and expanding trade and investment ties. Media & Culture: Telekom Srbija’s TS Media is behind the U.S. distribution acquisition of Serbian sci-fi thriller “Sanctuary.”

Snap Election Shock: Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić dissolved parliament and called snap parliamentary elections for October 25, 2026, citing political tensions and warning that delays could threaten democratic stability; the move follows a government proposal and comes amid student-led protests and anti-corruption pressure. GDP & Macroeconomy: Serbia’s caretaker government said real Q2 2026 GDP growth hit 3.8%, with inflation at 2.2%, unemployment at 7.2%, and momentum in tourism and construction. EU Accession Pressure: Brussels is again questioning Serbia’s EU path after the state-backed funeral of Ratko Mladić, with EU officials stressing rule-of-law and values concerns. Serbia–Uzbekistan Trade Push: Uzbekistan and Serbia are preparing a zero-tariff free trade agreement and an industrial cooperation program, with talks also covering direct air links and business forums. Defence Industry Angle: Vučić said Serbia aims to start producing long-range ballistic missiles within a year and is open to cooperation with Uzbekistan on the technology. Dinar Watch: The dinar’s official median rate is RSD 117.3614 per euro, slightly changed from Tuesday. Election Logistics: Deadlines for submitting electoral lists have started, with signature thresholds and gender quota rules set for the October vote.

Serbia–Uzbekistan Deal Push: Presidents Aleksandar Vučić and Shavkat Mirziyoyev signed a strategic partnership in Belgrade, with 20 documents covering transport, renewable energy, agriculture, digitalisation, customs cooperation and mobility/lab migration, plus a joint intent to negotiate a free trade agreement and talk of a Belgrade–Tashkent air route. Gold & FX Risk Watch: European central banks are moving gold held in the US back to Europe—Dutch transfers to London and similar French/German repatriations—fuelled by reserve-security worries and geopolitical friction, a signal for markets that still price the dollar as the default safe haven. EU–Serbia Diplomatic Fallout: After Ratko Mladić’s funeral, Bosnia expelled two Serbian embassy officials and the EU leadership condemned the honours as incompatible with EU values, raising the risk of more political and economic pressure on Belgrade. Elections Timeline: Serbia’s government moves toward early parliamentary elections, with Vučić set to dissolve the assembly and call a vote for Oct. 25, while opposition groups debate whether to back a student list or run in separate columns. Procurement Integrity: Belgrade’s traffic-light modernization tender is again under scrutiny, with claims that conditions keep steering the deal toward the same supplier and that pressure may be applied during the review process. Security/Industry Angle: Vučić said Serbia could start producing long-range ballistic missiles within a year and is open to cooperation with Uzbekistan, linking defence expansion to broader industrial and technology progress.

EU Accession Pressure: European Commission and Council leaders condemned Serbia’s senior officials attending Ratko Mladić’s funeral, warning it contradicts EU values and could trigger consequences for Serbia’s accession track. Regional Diplomacy: Bosnia and Herzegovina expelled two Serbian embassy staff in Sarajevo over the same issue, escalating tensions and threatening consular cooperation. Serbia–Uzbekistan Deal-Making: Serbia and Uzbekistan signed a strategic partnership and exchanged 20 documents covering digitalisation, customs, renewable energy, transport, rail, culture and labour mobility, with a push for a free trade agreement and direct flights. Business & Trade Outlook: Uzbekistan–Serbia’s economic cooperation commission held its first Belgrade meeting, with officials saying current trade volumes don’t match potential and preparing a working group for FTA talks. Macroeconomic Signal: Serbia’s central bank governor Jorgovanka Tabaković again received an “A-” rating from Global Finance, citing inflation control, FX reserves and improved non-performing loans. Policy & Governance Watch: Transparency Serbia says Oct. 25 elections will be held under worse conditions than in 2023, citing voter pressure and campaign financing concerns. Global Finance Theme: The UN backed the “Equal Earth” map projection to better represent Africa’s size, with Serbia among the abstainers and the US the lone no vote.

Uzbekistan–Serbia Trade Push: Uzbekistan and Serbia opened their first Intergovernmental Commission on Economic Cooperation meeting in Belgrade, with talks co-chaired by Laziz Kudratov and Nenad Popović. The sides said bilateral trade is below potential and prepared a Joint Declaration to start negotiations on a Free Trade Agreement, aiming to boost goods and services flows and investment protection. EU Accession Under Pressure: EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called the mass funeral of convicted war criminal Ratko Mladić “shocking,” warning it could undermine Serbia’s EU path. Snap Election Move: Serbian PM Đuro Macut proposed dissolving the National Assembly and calling early parliamentary elections, with pro-government reporting pointing to late October as the likely window. Belgrade–Uzbek Business Diplomacy: Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev began a two-day official visit to Serbia, with a Serbia–Uzbekistan business forum and plans for a strategic partnership joint statement. China Links in the Region: Chinese Vice President Han Zheng met Serbia’s deputy PM Adrijana Mesarovic in Xiamen, alongside Bulgaria and Cambodia, as Beijing pushes trade and investment cooperation. Energy/Industry Cooperation: Russia signed a draft agreement with Serbia on peaceful outer-space cooperation, including space research, remote sensing and satellite systems.

UN Map Vote: The UN General Assembly endorsed the “Equal Earth” world map to better reflect Africa’s true size, backing the Togo-led “Correct the Map” resolution by 164 votes to one; the US was the lone no, while Serbia abstained alongside Estonia, Georgia, Lithuania, Moldova and Ukraine. Serbia Politics: Serbia’s government adopted a proposal to dissolve parliament and call early elections, citing improved electoral conditions and aiming to reduce tensions; PM Đuro Macut says the next step is for President Vučić to set the vote date. Diplomacy & Business: President Aleksandar Vučić welcomed Uzbek leader Shavkat Mirziyoyev with state honours and a planned Serbia–Uzbekistan business forum, as both sides move toward a strategic partnership. Energy & Investment: EPS launched a public call for investors to sell or jointly develop renewable projects, with solar/wind/hybrids (50MW+) and a second track for biomass, waste-to-energy and green hydrogen (1MW+). Transport Connectivity: Nemanja Starović met Transport Community’s Talis Linkaits to push rail/road upgrades, border-crossing efficiency and EU-standard reforms. Regional Gas: North Macedonia and Serbia joined the Vertical Corridor gas initiative, expanding cross-border supply routes and energy diversification. Currency Watch: The dinar’s official median rate is 117.3620 RSD per euro.

UN Cartography Push: The UN General Assembly adopted the “Correct the Map” resolution, backing wider use of equal-area projections like Equal Earth to stop maps from making Africa look smaller; it passed 164-1 with six abstentions, including Serbia, while the US voted no. Diplomatic Ties: Serbia and Saudi Arabia signed a visa-waiver deal for holders of diplomatic and official passports, aiming to deepen bilateral economic cooperation. Tech for Rail: Belgrade IoT firm Quectel announced an LGA 5G module supporting FRMCS, helping rail tech move from GSM-R to next-gen secure connectivity. Education Pressure: Serbia’s Academic Plenum backed the Student List, warning of political, financial and media pressure on universities and calling for stronger protection of autonomy. Energy Watch: Hungary’s PM Péter Magyar defended emergency works near Paks, saying riverbed strengthening is on schedule and the plant is operating steadily. Regional Security Forum: Hili Forum 2026 opens in Abu Dhabi with a focus on Gulf security, geoeconomics and geotechnology. Digital Safety: UNICEF reports about 20 million children aged 12-17 across 21 countries faced technology-facilitated sexual abuse or exploitation, including new findings for Serbia.

Serbia Politics: The Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) unanimously named Aleksandar Vučić as its candidate for prime minister, with him also set as list-holder for “Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia,” kicking off the election campaign and again raising the question of how long he will stay at the top. UN & Perception: The UN General Assembly backed the “Correct the Map” push, encouraging use of the Equal Earth projection that makes Africa look closer to its real size; the US voted no, while Serbia abstained—an issue that could ripple into education and media. Diplomacy & Mobility: Saudi Arabia and Serbia signed a visa-waiver deal for holders of diplomatic, special and service passports, aiming to deepen bilateral cooperation. Energy & Infrastructure: Hungary’s PM Péter Magyar updated on Danube works near Paks and said the Paks project is on schedule and operating steadily, despite environmental and permitting concerns. Digital Rights: SafeJournalists says Meta restrictions are hitting media and public-interest accounts in Albania, including Euronews Albania and Citizens.al—relevant for the region’s online business and civic ecosystem. Security Tech: A study from Singidunum University in Belgrade reports a new approach to detecting click fraud using recurrent neural networks and optimization, targeting losses from ad manipulation.

Serbia Politics: The Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) unanimously named Aleksandar Vučić as its candidate for prime minister, list-holder and first on the ticket “Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia,” kicking off the election campaign and promising a lineup including scientists and young people. Diplomacy & Economy: Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev is set to visit Serbia on Sept. 7-8 for high-level talks and a business forum focused on trade, investment and joint projects in transport, engineering, light and food industries, agriculture, pharma and IT. Regional Energy: The Vertical Corridor gas initiative welcomed North Macedonia’s NOMAGAS and Serbia’s Transportgas Serbia, expanding coordination on cross-border capacity and bidirectional flows. World Economy/Trade: Serbia’s presence at China’s CIFIT is set to grow after the first batch of exhibits from Serbia cleared customs for Xiamen, including handmade carpets and traditional crafts. UN & Global Representation: The UN General Assembly adopted the “Correct the Map” resolution backing equal-area projections (Equal Earth) to better reflect Africa’s size; Serbia abstained while the US voted against. Security & Elections: US envoys held over three hours of talks with Putin in Moscow on possible pathways to end the Ukraine war, while Serbia’s political debate continues amid claims of foreign influence.

UN Cartography Push: The UN General Assembly backed Togo’s “Correct the Map” resolution to promote equal-area projections like Equal Earth, passing 164-1 with the US the only no vote; Serbia abstained, and the move encourages governments, schools and tech platforms to use maps that show Africa’s true relative size more accurately than the Mercator projection. Diplomatic Fallout: The US called it a “radical ideological project,” while France said it will drop Mercator in its school curriculum, and Ukraine abstained over concerns about how occupied territories are portrayed. Energy Corridor Expansion: The Vertical Gas Corridor added North Macedonia’s NOMAGAS and Serbia’s Transportgas Serbia via an MoU, aiming to boost cross-border capacity and bidirectional flows across the Western Balkans. Serbia-EU Business/Finance: EBRD extended a €25m UniCredit Serbia factoring facility to support Serbian businesses, while Serbia’s securities moved into Euroclear, a step that can improve market access for investors. Domestic Politics: Serbia’s ruling SNS said President Vučić will lead its parliamentary election list and be nominated for prime minister, as protests continue to simmer ahead of October elections. UEFA Sanctions: UEFA fined Red Star Belgrade 90,000 euros and restricted away-ticket sales after fans glorified convicted war criminal Ratko Mladić. Trade Link: Uzbekistan announced a Sept 7-8 official visit to Serbia, with a business forum focused on transport, engineering, food and IT, plus labor migration talks.

UN Cartography Push: The UN General Assembly backed an African-led resolution to encourage a shift from the Mercator projection to equal-area models like Equal Earth, with 164 votes in favour and the US voting against; Serbia abstained, and the change is framed as “cognitive justice” because Mercator makes Africa look far smaller than it is. Energy Corridor Expansion: Greece, North Macedonia and Serbia formally joined the Vertical Gas Corridor via a new memorandum, aiming to strengthen cross-border gas flows and improve access to supply routes, including LNG options through Greece. Serbia’s Diplomacy at NAM 65: Foreign Minister Marko Đurić met counterparts from Cambodia, Saudi Arabia, Namibia and Sudan on the margins of the Non-Aligned Movement anniversary in Belgrade, stressing political dialogue and expanding trade and investment cooperation. Energy Costs Watch: Europe faces renewed inflation pressure as oil and gas prices rise amid Middle East supply concerns, with gas storage levels reported at the lowest for the season in years. Workforce Rules Update: Denmark plans a new 2027 immigration pathway for foreign workers under a collective-agreement scheme, listing Serbia among eligible countries and setting a minimum salary threshold. Business Outlook: A Serbian op-ed argues the country needs a new economic revolution focused on manufacturing, exports and supporting entrepreneurs to keep young talent at home.

Energy & Infrastructure: North Macedonia’s NOMAGAS and Serbia’s Transportgas Serbia joined the Vertical Corridor, with a new memorandum signed in Thessaloniki to extend the gas route across the Western Balkans and boost bidirectional capacity and supply security. Business & Trade Policy: Serbia’s EXPO 2027 push continues as PM Djuro Macut visited the Belgrade complex and the E Zone, highlighting the Serbian House as a platform for tourism, economy and local self-government promotion. Energy Deals: Srbijagas says Serbia wants a long-term extension of its gas agreement with Russia, while separate reporting points to SOCAR’s €600m Nis gas-fired power plant plan that would add electricity and heat capacity and deepen energy cooperation. Regulation for Companies: Serbia’s new Personal Data Protection Act is set to expand obligations for businesses, with a major rewrite aimed at aligning with EU rules. Employment Incentives: Amendments extend hiring incentives for new employees until end-2028, with key conditions shifting from 2027 and 2028—important for HR planning. Finance & Markets: The dinar-to-euro median exchange rate is reported at RSD 117.3598. Digital Security: Citizen Lab and Amnesty say Serbia used Pegasus spyware against student activists via a zero-click iMessage exploit, while Serbian authorities dispute the findings—raising fresh election-season risks for civil society.

Air Serbia Growth: Air Serbia logged a record August with 616,479 passengers, up 10% year-on-year, reinforcing its fast route expansion across Europe, the Mediterranean and beyond. Energy Deal: Serbia’s EPS, Srbijagas and Azerbaijan’s SOCAR agreed on a joint venture for a new gas-fired power plant in Niš (up to 500 MW), with signing expected in Belgrade soon and construction planned over four years. Foreign Policy for Business: Marko Đurić used the Non-Aligned Movement anniversary in Belgrade to push economic cooperation talks with Cambodia, Saudi Arabia, Namibia, Sudan and Guinea-Bissau—signaling more trade and investment outreach. Work Rules: Serbia published a list of six job categories foreign nationals can do without a work permit, capped at stays of up to 90 days in any 180-day period. Spyware & Elections Risk: Serbia faced fresh pressure after Citizen Lab and SHARE Foundation reported Pegasus/NoviSpy targeting of student and civil society figures; authorities denied involvement. Regional Infrastructure: Hungary will proceed with the Mohács Danube Bridge but cut a costly road expansion after a review, redirecting savings to road renovations. Defense Industry: Hanwha Aerospace is set to export Croatia’s Chunmoo launcher system (18 launchers) in a deal worth about €435m, with deliveries starting in 2028. UNICEF Child Safety: UNICEF estimates 20m children aged 12–17 faced online sexual abuse or exploitation in a year, including Serbia in the latest research scope.

Aviation & Tourism: Air Serbia hit a new all-time monthly high in August, carrying 616,479 passengers (+10% y/y) across Belgrade, Niš and Kraljevo, with 5,743 flights to 100+ destinations. Energy Deal: Serbia, EPS, Srbijagas and SOCAR have completed talks in Istanbul on a joint venture to build a new gas-fired power plant near Niš (up to 500 MW), with signing expected in Belgrade within a month and a four-year build timeline. Tech & Telecom: Telekom Srbija Group opened MTEL Germany’s 10th Frankfurt store, expanding services for the Serbian and Western Balkan diaspora across the DACH region. Work Rules for Foreigners: Serbia published a list of six job categories foreigners can do without a work permit, limited to stays of up to 90 days in any 180-day period. Digital Rights & Politics: Authorities denied involvement in a reported spyware wave targeting Serbian student activists and opposition figures; the BIA called the claims “sensationalism,” while Citizen Lab linked at least one case to Pegasus. Public Safety Online: UNICEF estimates about 20 million children across 21 countries faced online sexual abuse or exploitation in a year, with social media driving most cases. Currency Watch: The dinar’s official median rate against the euro was 117.3505 RSD/EUR.